The pundits are predicting it, and hard figures so far show a rise in non-linear video consumption; but that did not prove non-linear would finally dominate. And vested managers are suggesting it is “add on” to linear.
But now hard figures are emerging that in the Netherlands already more than 60% of video is watched non-linear. The age category difference is also there.
The end of the TV channel? Maybe, but the shift will be the biggest change in the TV industry the coming 5-10 years: that’s for sure.
Living in the Netherlands it is clear young people use PCs etc. to watch online content (lot of it illegal). Kids also use smartphones. They do not stream conventional TV channels, though that is available. And myself: moving to PVR mostly, tired of adds and not letting my time schedule be controlled by the program guide. Netflix is quite popular. Youtube also.
Source: 61% of Dutch viewing time is non-linear
UHD is requiring better content protection technologies. Though protecting content in bilions of consumer devices will remain an almost impossible challenge new technologies try to do the best possible.
The current windows10 Playready3.0 will require hardware protection for all critical functions as the slide below shows:
- fully protected content decoding./presentation path
- root of trust & device binding
- Crucial license & content key processing
The article in PCworld claims it may be too late for Microsoft top save the PC as playback device. Indeed: they may be right. But Playready also has a huge footprint in the online distribution and streaming space. Microsoft should take that interest seriously or risk loosing UHD there.
The slide above clearly show the current trend in new protection architectures with more TEE and hardware technologies replacing software. It will be more difficult to break, but with the added risk that once broken it will be impossible to repair.
All about PlayReady 3.0, Microsoft’s secret plan to lock down 4K movies to your PC | PCWorld.
A nice video interview on NscreenMedia with Simon Frost, Head of Communications Marketing for Ericsson about what TV will be like in 2020 as a summary of a panel discussion at NAB2015.
Some interesting remarks:
- In 2020 50% of video will be on demand, 50% linear ( I believe this)
- 55% of traffic in mobile networks will be video (I do not believe this: I am a bear on mobile video)
- Content aggregation in this new on-demand age is the key challenge. Large players will challenge todays TV providers. Counter this is the trend to content providers seeking independence towards the viewer.
nScreenNoise – TV 2020 in the networked societynScreenMedia.